Today I was going through YouTube where various experts have spoken their heart out in different videos. So many of them talk about which stock will go up and which one will not. But I don’t look into those. Personally, I do not buy or sell stocks based on what others have said. I do my own homework. Yes, I do consider expert opinions to narrow down my search.
Anyways I was looking at various indicators and oscillator. It is overwhelming to see how many such videos are there on these topics. Finally, I picked up stochastics. That’s what today’s study will be on.
A stochastic oscillator is a momentum indicator comparing a particular closing price of a security to a range of its prices over a certain period of time. The sensitivity of the oscillator to market movements is reducible by adjusting that time period or by taking a moving average of the result. It is used to generate overbought and oversold trading signals, utilizing a 0–100 bounded range of values.
There are two important things to consider in stochastics; i.e %K and %D. Notably, %K is referred to sometimes as the fast stochastic indicator. The “slow” stochastic indicator is taken as %D = 3-period moving average of %K.
The general theory serving as the foundation for this oscillator is that in a market trending upward, prices will close near the high, and in a market trending downward, prices close near the low. Transaction signals are created when the %K crosses through a three-period moving average, which is called the %D.
I got to know that stochastic acts differently in range bound market and trending market. So that needs to be interpreted in the correct manner. Then came the topic of fast and slow stochastic. Lower valuation generates more signals which is called the fast stochastics. Many of these signals can be false. But on the other hand, the signals generate quickly. So, this one is highly sensitive. I can take a buy or sell decision quickly.
If I increase the timeframe or the valuation then stochastics become slow. Signals are rare to generate, but they are genuine (mostly). The problem here is that signals generate late. Therefore, when I am thinking of buying or selling the stock price has already moved up or down. Thus, if you need more signals then lower settings is correct. Otherwise, if you need to reduce unnecessary signals then higher valuation is correct. Stochastic for higher time frame can be 8. 3. 5. Depending on the stock market condition, the stock that I have chosen and the time frame for which I intend to hold it I will have to adjust the valuation or time frame of stochastics. It is basically a trial-and-error method. You have to do it by yourself.
While looking at the Nifty 50 stocks I was getting confused with the support lines and exactly how often does this strategy work. So, I pulled up everything in an excel sheet, i.e all the 50 stocks. For support lines I used straight lines, i.e channels, moving averages, and Fibonacci lines. Since I am a long term investor, I have chosen monthly chart. I think this is better, as I am an office going person it is not possible for me to keep a track of stock price every day. I have even burnt my fingers trying trading. Thus, long-term investing to harness the power of compounding suits me.
Based on whatever I have learnt till now, I did a lot of testing with various types of support lines and stochastics of various times frames. 20, 50, and 100 months moving average usually worked. However, once I even took 25 and for another stock it was 30 months.
Out of 50 stocks the strategy has worked for 33 stocks. Of course, not all are equally strong signals. The reason why I am doing this experiment is because I tend to select fundamentally strong stocks and enter at the time when the price is low. It is true that nobody can time the market. But I can buy a stock at a cheaper rate than what my friend has bought it for.
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